Martin McGuinness has announced that he is resigning as deputy First Minister over the refusal of First Minister Arlene Foster to step aside due to her role in the Renewable Heat Incentive. His resignation comes after weeks of discord between Sinn Féin and the DUP. In a statement Mr McGuinness said the DUP’s handling of this issue has been “completely out of step with a public mood”. The tone has hardened in recent days with Sinn Fein accusing the DUP of arrogance throughout the unfolding scandal and the First Minister Arlene Foster refusing to bow to Sinn Fein pressure stating their motivations are ‘not principled’ but ‘political’.

Latest update

·         As a consequence of the deputy First Minister’s move,  Arlene Foster now loses her post of First Minister, although she can still fulfil some minor non–executive functions. She is now under significant pressure but has remained clear in her intention to continue and lead her party into any election.

·         There are seven days in which Sinn Féin could nominate a new deputy First Minister, however Sinn Fein have made clear this will not happen. The crisis is complicated by concerns over the health of Mr McGuinness, who is being treated for a serious health condition. He declined to discuss the issue when he spoke to reporters at Stormont or to say whether he would stand again if there was an election.

·         The Northern Secretary James Brokenshire, after seven days, must call fresh Assembly elections within a “reasonable period”. The earliest elections can happen are 43 days from next Monday. Mr Brokenshire also has the power to bring in emergency legislation to suspend the Stormont institutions until there is some possible resolution of the current crisis. Suspending the devolved government restores direct rule however the Secretary of State said the British government’s primary role is providing political stability and that it would seek to help the parties find a resolution over the coming days. This is an unlikely scenario as SF & the DUP are very much on an election footing and one that is likely to be one of the most orange and green entrenched elections for many years.

·         Even if an election is called, however, we will not enter a direct rule situation. Essentially the Assembly continues until the six week purdah period kicks in ahead of election date set by the Secretary of State.  The SoS may wish to allow time for talks and set a date for an election that is well beyond the next 7 weeks (the earliest period in which an election can be called). 

·         While the FM and dFM and their SpAds will no longer be in post, the other Executive Ministers (including Junior Ministers) will remain in post until election day, as will their SpAds. Also, because the FM and dFM are no longer in post, Executive Committees can’t happen. This means the budget and legislative proposals can’t be approved.  In effect, policymaking grinds to a halt.

·         Elections will not resolve the underlying issues which have led to the current crisis.  In anticipation of the upcoming election party tones have already hardened with electioneering likely to hinder progress and unresolved issues such as NAMA, Red Sky, LIOFA as well as long standing issues including legacy of the past all causing increasing acrimony between the two main parties. Martin McGuinness has stated there will be no return to the status quo except on terms that are acceptable to Sinn Féin raising the spectre of post–election negotiations.  

·         SF have drawn a line in the sand in relation to certain issues which means that negotiations post–election will be difficult. the Budget and Programme for Government have yet to be agreed post–election and there may be a scenario, if we do not have a resolution, that the lead civil servant will take control of 75% of the budget to ensure that vital servants remain.

Elections

·         With elections the most likely outcome the current number of MLAs will reduce to 90 with a reduction from six to five for each constituency. All parties are likely to lose members.

·         The 2016 NI Assembly elections were held last May, with the DUP remaining the largest party, claiming 38 seats – the same number as in the 2011 elections. Sinn Féin lost a seat, but remained in second place on 28 seats, with the Ulster Unionists maintaining the 16 they had before the election. The SDLP dropped two to 12 seats, while the Alliance Party returned with eight. The Greens and People Before Profit Alliance secured two seats each, with TUV leader Jim Allister remaining its sole representative.