Five years on from the avalanche of crises that caused the world’s greatest financial crash there has been, for the first time cause for genuine optimism.
Rarely since 2008 have we seen positive economic stories back to back, but the last two weeks have been different both on a UK wide basis and here in Northern Ireland.A seminal moment? Perhaps not, but most definitely something to build upon. First of all we had the latest unemployment figures with Northern Ireland seeing the biggest fall in unemployment in 11 years. Numbers claiming benefit dropped by 800 to 63,000 which for a micro economy such as Northern Ireland is not insignificant. The rate, 7.8%, is the same as the average rate for the entire UK which is an improvement on where we have been.
This was quickly followed by the UK Trade & Investment’s (UKTI) report introduced by Lord Green, Minister of State for Trade and Investment. Again Northern Ireland has fared well with foreign investment projects having risen in the last year by 41%, with the UK positioned as the top destination for foreign investment attracting 11% more projects that the previous year. Northern Ireland benefitted from 38 projects and whilst this may not be as impressive as Wales’ increase to 67 projects (191% rise), it must be considered positive in the context of the limitations within the local economy. Inward investment is an area the Executive has spent considerable time and resources, with OFMDFM taking the lead with visits to China and elsewhere, so this was an important report for local stakeholders. Legal services, financial services and information technology remain key areas of growth for inward investment within Northern Ireland.
Of course we also had the news that Northern Ireland remains the worst UK construction market but even within that there were positives to be taken with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyor’s (RIC’s) report highlighting that our construction downturn is easing with the balance for workloads in Northern Ireland at its best level since the start of 2008. John Armstrong, managing director of the Construction Employers' Federation, said the industry sees things as much more upbeat than in previous years. Also when you consider how far our construction sector had to fall in comparison to the rest of the UK, there can be no surprise that we are where we are.
The last piece of positive news is perhaps the most telling for the UK as a whole with many in the media as upbeat as they have been with the announcement that the economy is on the mend after 0.6% growth in the last quarter. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) claims that the economy has recouped more than half of the 7.2% of output lost in the 2008 – 2009 recession. It was also the first time since 2011 that the UK experienced two quarters of growth back-to-back.
This is a very welcome outcome to where we were a few short months ago, when the UK economy was peering down the barrel of a triple dip recession. You certainly sense more confidence seeping into the Chancellor’s language even if he was a little tempered in his response to this positive news. Locally the specific challenges our economy possesses brings more challenges than other regions within the UK, however there was general agreement amongst local economists that we are now in a better place. As regards areas to grow the economy, you could talk forever and a day of how, when, where but what any society must do, or where it must be, is in a position to capitalise once the economy does start to turn. The issue for Northern Ireland on the back of the first snippets of positive news there has been in a number of years, is that despite this positive news as a society we still have not addressed our disconnect and our entrenched positions. What this will mean for our society going forward both in terms of well being and economically is that it won’t take much to undo any good work that has been done.
As has been witnessed in the South, this will result in the poor getting poorer and become more disengaged and the rich becoming richer. A report last year in the Republic confirmed that during the recession the gap between the rich and poor is widening, with the top 10% of the population receiving almost 14 times more disposable income than the poorest 10% , this compared to only eight times in 1980.
This is not the basis for any society committed to social justice, democracy and equality.
Inequality of income and wealth are not good for anyone. The consolidation of wealth and capital in so few hands is economically inefficient because it depresses demand, a point made famous by Henry Ford. It is also socially divisive. If you are born poor in a very unequal society, you are much more likely to end your life in poverty. A leading Washington economist recently spoke passionately (and off the record) about the "lie" that is telling a poor Indian they too can become a Mumbai millionaire if they just "work hard".And extreme wealth and inequality pose a moral dilemma. As Mahatma Gandhi said: "Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed."
While solutions to many problems worldwide can be found on the global stage, the unique challenges faced by diverse communities can only truly be addressed from the inside. Our own community is facing many of the same reoccurring civic issues. We need to address those issues now, and not, as we so often do wait until they happen. People and circumstances can and do change. The most important aspect in maintaining any intentional change is to stay connected to a community of people who are also interested in that same change.
And finally will any of our local leaders note the relevance of a point made by President Obama in a recent interview in the New York Times, when he urged Washington to give up political point scoring and focus on rebuilding America’s economy? If we are to achieve a truly balanced, fair and harmonious society this is something they must do.
Claire Aiken is Managing Director of Public Relations and Public Affairs Company Aiken PR