What is it about Irish Presidential campaigns that accumulate so much scandal and intrigue?  The only predictable thing about it is its unpredictability.  In fact the more I hear about it the more it reminds me of our global economic woes.  So many participants, speculation, condemnation, failed reputations, a public becoming increasingly detached and a process and series of events that makes you wonder whether there will ever be a positive conclusion.

The one clear differential is that we know next month that Ireland’s President elect will make his or her historic journey to Aras an Uachtarain, come what may. 

What we cannot say with any conviction is exactly when our economic fortunes will start to turn, or indeed what impact proposed remedial tactics, policy or legislation will have to charter a positive course or speed up the recovery process. This frustration is more forcefully  felt within the context of a devolved institution such as the Northern Ireland Assembly exposed to the global elements but without any real teeth to attempt to influence it.

The great Irish playwright George Bernard Shaw once said if all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion and that adage is as true today as it was sixty years ago.   Labour still maintains that the cuts are too severe whilst the Government points to the uncertainty caused by the eurozone debt crisis and the debate in the US over fiscal policy for the revision of growth within, not only the UK’s but indeed, the global economy.

The IMF has warned that the global economy has entered a ‘dangerous new phase’ with an uncomfortable forecast for the UK coalition this year, which places projections behind Germany, France, the US and Canada in 2011 - although it suggests that this trend will reverse in 2012.

Last week, the UK’s growth forecast was revised down from 1.5% to 1.1%, and this prompted the PwC’s chief economist to comment that it would be ‘wise for both governments and businesses in the UK to develop contingency plans’ to prevent a double dip scenario.

Devolved institutions should also take heed of this advice, because although they will continue to be directed on a particular course by David Cameron and George Osborne there are small things, when accumulated, that can make a difference in helping to restore economic confidence.  More of that later.So what of the UK coalition Government’s considerations in redressing its stance to account for this growing concern?  Well, the Treasury has stated that David Cameron remains committed to its deficit cutting plan, a policy that was recently endorsed as appropriate by Christine Lagarde, Head of the IMF, although you would not expect her to take any other position given her pivotal role in the on-going Euro Zone fiscal crisis.  She did however qualify this by saying that the ‘heightened risk’ meant the need for a ‘heightened readiness to respond’.

The many calls for alternative options or plan b have been growing.  But what options are available?  We have already had quantitative easing and interest rates are the lowest they have been in living memory. 

It looks as if the tactic of printing money will be revisited again by the Bank of England to support the banks and increase demand, some say as early as next month.  There has also been speculation about the Government utilising money earmarked for infrastructural investment sooner, Labour has called for a temporary VAT cut to boost consumer spending and the Chamber of Commerce has called on the Government to extend its plans for enterprise zones, nationwide across the UK, with tax breaks and a faster planning process to encourage private sector growth – the Chamber claims the inherent cost of investment would be offset by higher tax receipts.

The common thread?  There isn’t one – brings me right back to George Bernard Shaw’s adage about the economist and the fact that it’s an art and not a science. 

So what for the unsophisticated country cousin, that is Northern Ireland?  Whilst one may argue that fiscal policy will impact the whole of the UK, we cannot make direct changes to boost the region’s economy or influence policy such as changing the VAT rate or instantly installing Northern Ireland as an enterprise zone. We also have little room to manoeuvre in terms of early releasing of targeted investment due to the straitjacket the Executive is operating from Westminster’s allocated budget.

However, one thing the Executive can do is to keep the wheels of business moving forward and prioritise its support of the private sector, no mean feat whilst balancing your outgoings which significantly outweigh your revenue (or in our case Northern Ireland’s block grant).  As much as anything it is about setting the scene and preparing the conditions for the private sector to flourish. 

The comprehensive support for devolution of corporation tax powers is a good start and Sammy Wilson’s measured approach to this subject is welcomed, as it places more emphasis on all the other conditions that are required to enable it to succeed (although his assessment of four years before implementation should we receive the green light will not be welcomed by many business organisations).  These include maintaining a strong education system, commitment to the delivery of a knowledge based economy and having the foresight and vision to invest in the industries that we know have the potential to provide a robust economy, long term.

We need to take calculated risks, otherwise our Executive’s leadership will be a regional equivalent to that of ex US President Jimmy Carter, whose tenure will eternally be remembered for the headline ‘more mush from the wimp’.

Now is not the time to develop or implement legislation that can hinder business, further burden its administration or give reason for consumers to stay at home. This is a global issue but our Executive must make every effort to set the scene and provide the conditions for the private sector to flourish.   If it does there can be no complaint, not matter what the result, failure to do so and expect no plaudits for simply having stable government. A steep learning curve it may be but this is the real deal – time to deliver.