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Analysis of Ireland's New Programme for Government

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Background

A Programme for Government (PfG) has been published by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that will form the basis of Government until 2029. The deal agreed upon following negotiations between the parties and Regional Independent TDs will have to be ratified by both main parties before the Dáil meets to elect a new Taoiseach on Wednesday 22nd January.

It is expected that Micheál Martin will return as Taoiseach until November 2027, with Simon Harris set to take over as Tánaiste when the new government is formed, with Fianna Fáil to take the majority of the cabinet seats.

The Regional Independent Group which will form part of the new coalition is expected to see Sean Canney and Noel Grealish holding ‘super junior’ ministries. The Healy-Rae brothers, Michael and Danny, have also reached an agreement to support the Government over the next five years.

What is in the Programme for Government?

The new Programme for Government covers priorities for the incoming Government across twelves policy areas and sets out how Government will function over the next five years. There has been criticism that many of the commitments within the Programme are aspirational with proposals to be ‘explored’ and ‘examined’.

Key policy pledges within the Programme for Government include:

·         Functioning of Government

o   After the ratification of the PfG and formation of Government on 22nd January, the Party leaders will agree the breakdown of Government departments and ministerial responsibilities.

o   The leader of Fianna Fáil will hold the office of Taoiseach until 16 November 2027, at which point they will be replaced by the leader of Fine Gael.

o   The next election will be held in late 2029.

 

·         Business and Enterprise

o   The PfG commits to the creation of 300,000 additional jobs by 2030.

o   There was also a commitment to bring forward measures to further support small businesses including amendments to VAT and PRSI as part of the normal budgetary process. This has dampened expectations around the reduction of the VAT rate in hospitality to 9% in the near future. Fine Gael had promised to deliver it within the first 100 days in their manifesto.

o   There were further commitments to establish a Small Business Unit and to implement an SME test to scrutinise all new pieces of legislation for their impact on the sector.

o   On multi-national investment and export overseas, it promises a new IDA Ireland five-year strategy and to target at least half of IDA investments outside Dublin.

 

·         Climate Change

o   Government commitments on policy issues linked to Climate Change are set out across the PfG. The ‘Protecting Our Environment’ chapter restates the Governments goals in line with legislation including:

Ø  A 51% reduction in emissions to 2030 and net-zero emissions no later than 2050.

Ø  Publish annual Climate Action Plans

o   In addition, the Government has committed to accelerating Ireland’s progress towards the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030

o   There are further commitments to futureproof Ireland’s built environment through retrofitting and enacting legislation for district heating.

o   A review of the PfG has identified 281 environmental commitments up slightly on 2020 with notable additions this year including the establishment of a Public Investment Act and the resourcing of a Planning and Environment Court.

o   There is a significant expansion in commitments around Transport including a commitment to continued development of greenways and cycle lanes. There is also a significant commitment to lift the Dublin Airport passenger cap an issue that has been dominating headlines over the last year.

 

·         Energy and Electricity

o   The PfG states that Ireland will be a leader in Renewable Energy generation. Among the commitments in the PfG to help deliver this include:

Ø  Delivery of 9GW of onshore wind, 8GW solar and at least 5GW of offshore wind by 2030.

Ø  Holding at least one Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) auction per year in keeping with established practice.

Ø  Fast-tracking offshore wind development by prioritising the publication of Designated Maritime Area Plans (DMAPs).

Ø  Utilising the new Planning Act to fast-track developments.

Ø  Ensuring a policy is put in place to streamline repowering and life extension of existing onshore wind farms that are nearing end of life.

Ø  Commitments around empowering communities with supports to secure grid access for local renewable projects.

o   The PfG notes that “The Government recognises the criticality of digital infrastructure in economic growth and the delivery of public services” and commits to “Allow data centres that contribute to economic growth and efficient grid usage, such as prioritising waste heat capture for district heating systems and other local uses.”

 

·         Agriculture and Food

o   Within the draft agreement there is a commitment to strengthening farm incomes, stating that this is “an absolute priority” of the Government, including support across suckler, beef, dairy, sheep, pig, poultry, tillage, horticulture and organic sectors.

o   The PfG also states that the Government “will do everything within its power to make the case at EU level to secure the retention of the Nitrates Derogation given our unique grass-based production model.” This was an issue that was particularly prominent during the election campaign.

o   There is also a commitment to update and introduce a new food strategy to succeed Food Vision 2030 in consultation with farmers and agency stakeholders, and to give the Agri-Food Regulator (An Rialálaí Agraibhia) enhanced powers to ensure transparency in the food chain.

 

·         Housing

o   The programme promises a new national housing plan to succeed the former Housing for All plan and commits the government to capitalise the Land Development Agency out to 2040.

o   It also increases housing delivery targets to 300,000 homes by the end of 2030 with the promise of a new “starter home programme” to deliver an average of 15,000 starter homes per year.

 

·         Shared Island Unit

o   The PfG reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to the Shared Island Fund and committed to increasing the resources available to it by €1bn to 2035.

o   There were also commitments to increase staffing within the unit, fund Northern Ireland students to participate in the Erasmus programme across Ireland the EU and to complete construction of the Narrow Water Bridge.

o   Existing commitments to the A5 road upgrade and to develop the vision in the All-Ireland Rail Review were also set out.

 

Reaction to the Programme for Government

·         Incoming Taoiseach Micheál Martin

The Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach in-waiting described the plan as “very ambitious” and promised that the Government would “rule to the best traditions of our Party and our promises to the Irish people.”

·         Current Taoiseach Simon Harris

Commenting on the new Programme for Government the Fine Gael leader said that the PfG was “about securing the future of this great country” and that it was, “ambitious on housing, climate, childcare and business supports.”

·         Sinn Féin

Unsurprising Sinn Féin were more dismissive of the with Finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty describing the draft PfG as “nothing more than a copy and paste job from five years ago, “and it is “a tired and stale document that is completely devoid of the ambition and big ideas our people need and deserve.”

·         Social Democrats

The Social Democrats said the draft programme for government lacked ambition and amounted to "tinkering around the edges with more failed FF and FG policy".

·         Labour

Labour’s Marie Sherlock said her party has concerns over "some of the stances previously taken by some independents on climate and migration".

·         People Before Profit

People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd Barrett described the programme for the government as an "abject failure to offer solutions to the housing emergency and health crisis".

 

Next Steps

The Programme for Government will go forward this week for ratification by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael members before a vote is taken in the Dáil on Wednesday 22nd January.

More information on the Programme for Government can be found here.

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