Arguably, the biggest election held throughout the island of Ireland was on the 22nd May 1998.  On that sunny warm spring day, independent referendums were held in Northern Ireland and the Republic, with an overwhelming majority voting in favour of implementing the Good Friday Agreement peace deal.

While far from perfect this was the beginning of a journey where Ireland, both sides of its border, would start to become comfortable with itself, its identity and with its relationships North South and East West.  That border, which for security reasons, had dogged the free movement of people, goods and services across the island for a generation would depart the scene.  The opportunity to avail of British and Irish citizenship in Northern Ireland was legislated for and it was all underpinned by the UK and Ireland’s strong partnership and membership of the EU.

Brexit has completely changed that dynamic and has brought to the fore, the saying ‘Some old wounds never truly heal and bleed again at the slightest word’.  Even though her reference was to grab Scottish attention, Theresa May’s ‘precious precious bond’ was received at various ends of the welcome scale by Northern Ireland Executive coalition partners DUP and Sinn Fein.  The new PM’s visit to Belfast was choreographed and well managed but had little depth or substance – Northern Ireland is not at the top of the PM’s Brexit agenda.  A significant net benefactor of EU membership (NI had been due to receive 3.5bn Euro between 2014 and 2020) 56% of people voted to remain.  However, the leading party the DUP canvassed to leave while its coalition partner Sinn Fein campaigned to remain along with the other opposition parties (Ulster Unionists, SDLP and Alliance).

There is no appetite from the nationalist parties (Sinn Fein and the SDLP) or the Alliance to tuck May’s ‘Brexit means Brexit’ ball under their arm and run with it.  Indeed, a cross community political and human rights group have written to Theresa May regarding the economic and peace process implications for Northern Ireland and outlining their intention to take a judicial review on the issue of EU membership.

In contrast to this, there is no alternative plan in place, which is not helped by the DUP and Sinn Fein’s opposing positions. The required leadership needed to support business across the island and help to address concerns of cross border trade and free movement is more prevalent in a growing partnership between organisations such as the CBI NI and IBEC (the ROI business representative body).

As for the Republic while it is the fastest growing EU economy the UK remains its single most important trading partner representing 18% of its GDP and bilateral trade between the two countries worth £1bn every single week.

Theresa May’s meeting in Downing Street with Taoiseach Enda Kenny, the first of any EU member state, highlighted the importance of a maturing relationship and a merged economic destiny – at least on the Irish side. While the outcomes from the meeting were entirely predictable, focusing on the commitment not to have a hard border between the North and South of Ireland and to keep in place the Common Travel Area agreement (which has been in situ since the 1920’s) these are issues that are ultimately beyond the control of both premiers.  It’s a noble sentiment to think that Enda Kenny can be the UK’s inside man in the EU to advance the best interests of both countries, but Angela Merkel has done her level best to kick that particular one to touch by not allowing the under pressure Fine Gael leader to have special status in any negotiations, saying, ‘The Irish voice will be heard as much as every other voice’.  

And then of course there is the issue of Enda and his opposition leader in the Dáil Micheal Martin’s mischievous references in support of Sinn Fein’s call for a border poll.  Not that it is likely to gain significant traction but it demonstrates political representatives’ inhibitions, and the no holds barred approach on the Brexit issue, delving into territory that they wouldn’t have dreamt of raising six weeks ago.  In this the 100 year commemoration of the 1916 Easter Rising, it’s not so much ‘England’s difficulty is Ireland’s opportunity’ more a case of let’s look at ‘All or any Port in an economic storm’. 

Unlike Scotland, Brexit will not realistically threaten the constitutional status of Northern Ireland in the medium term but the rules have changed and, more so than any other region, it’s the economy, and potentially the peace process that will suffer.