The Brexit debate is well and truly underway and in 2016, its volume will heighten with economic, political, social and potential UK constitutional implications of a pull–out being discussed at great length.

But also in 2016 Europe’s most pressing issue of a generation, the refugee crisis will also continue to loom large.  How will Europe manage this humanitarian issue?   Could the crisis itself, bring down the European Union.   I don’t believe so. Although the challenges are significant; the sheer volume of refugees and migrants seeking protection from war, human rights abuses, hunger, oppression and terrorism is unprecedented, one country alone cannot manage the biggest humanitarian crisis since the Second World War.   However a determined European consensus approach to both tackling the issue of why so many people are fleeing their homelands and providing a safe sanctuary for those that arrive in our countries, is were European institutions can redefine their role on the global stage.  I recently travelled with a delegation of 15 Irish Bishops and their advisers on a fact–finding trip to the EU institutions organised by the European Commission Representation in Ireland.  During the visit, we met with officials of the European Commission, Irish MEPS, our three local MEPS and the Head and Deputy Head of the Northern Office in Brussels.    The overriding take–out was that the European Union is determined to manage the crisis with the support of strong leadership in each member country.  Our churches and their work in this area of burning human need will be as effective as each one of us makes it.  We all have a role to play.  

Despite the negative headlines and the consistent negative media reports, the EU is making progress.    Although by the very nature of how the EU Institutions work, it is a glacial and difficult process, but change is taking place nonetheless.   There is a strong view that Europe has to take a much harder look at its geopolitical environment.  According to commentators such as Natalie Nougayrede the EU is slowly realising it will only meet economic, political and social crisis if it starts thinking of itself more as an actor of history, rather than an object of history.  A bit like the Northern Ireland Assembly, it seems that real progress is often made in Europe when it is on the verge of eradication.  Crises are opportunities that may be ridiculed as a mantra, but it is not altogether wrong.  What the EU needs is to be more proactive and effect positive change as opposed consistently having to react.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor drew and deserved widespread praise for the humanitarian spirit of her policy of opening up the flow of Syrian refugees to Germany.  In a speech that prompted a 10–minute standing ovation, Merkel told party colleagues last month that she was ready for the struggle, even though “everything we do in Europe is interminably arduous”. She affirmed her commitment to manage the situation and where there were obstacles to overcome she would not be found wanting.  The Chancellor has positioned the refugee crisis as a historic test for Europe and one she was convinced would be passed “The fight for a unified Europe, is worthwhile”.  Although Ms Merkel has scaled back her decision to stand by the refugees she used her New Year message to plead with the increasingly sceptical German public to accept refugees, calling them “an opportunity for tomorrow”.   The Paris attacks have not helped the plight of the refugees but we need more of the determined and compassionate leadership of Angela Merkel.

Over a million people sought sanctuary in 2015 in the 500 million strong European Union with the majority arriving by sea often by the hands of criminal groups and profiteers.  An added misfortune to those already in a desperate situation.  It has been reported within the last 24 hours that a two–year–old boy has become the first known refugee causality of 2016 after drowning off the coast of the Greek island of Agathonisi.  

2016 cannot be a repeat of 2015 when about 3,600 men, women and children drowned crossing the Mediterranean, when volunteers not governments showed the kind of compassion, solidarity and organisational focus expected of the European Institutions and when Germany alone took the lead.  

The nationalist leaders leveraged the crisis to their own agenda.  It was no surprise that Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister led the way.  In a speech in July 2014, Orban extolled the virtues of ‘illiberal democracy’ singling out Putin’s Russia and Erdogans Turkey as allegedly successful states that have avoided the ‘pitfalls’ of liberalism.  For Orban, the refugee crisis is simply the latest and most visible system of what he sees as the failure of European liberal politics and the weakness of naivety of some of the continent’s most prominent politicians.  

In the end, the problem boils down to what type of society we want to live in, and what image Europe wants to project to the world. Let us face it we are rich and lucky. The EU, in global terms, represents 7% of the population, 25% of GDP, and 50% of social spending. It distributes 65% of development aid and more than 50% of the humanitarian aid. Europe is a magnet because, despite all its problems, it has one of the highest GDP per capita ratios, and the lowest inequalities, yet it also has an ageing population. It is a haven of stability and respect for individual rights and its collective power makes it stronger than the sum of its individual parts, which brings me back to the role it can play in one of the biggest humanitarian crises of our time.  Europe’s actions in this crisis will be recalled in history for many years to come which makes Natalie Nougayrede’s point all the more relevant, will the Union be an actor of history, rather than an object of history?  Will it be active or passive in affecting this humanitarian crisis?   I, for one, know the Europe that I want to be part of.